But there is an “increasing probability” of La Niña developing in June-July-August 2024, prompting the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to raise La Niña Watch also on Thursday.

El Niño, La Niña, and neutral are the three phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, which the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere.”

Impact of El Niño

The current El Niño episode began in the tropical Pacific in June 2023, gradually progressing from weak to strong.

In the Philippines, El Niño has triggered drought in at least 25 areas, a dry spell in 16 areas, and dry conditions in 10 areas as of February 29.

The Department of Agriculture estimated on February 25 that El Niño has caused at least P357.4 million worth of damage and losses to farms in the Ilocos Region, Mimaropa, Western Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula.

According to the WMO, the 2023-2024 El Niño “has peaked as one of the five strongest on record,” though it is weaker than the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 events. It peaked between November 2023 and January 2024.

The WMO had also warned on Tuesday, March 5, that while El Niño is gradually weakening, “it will continue to impact the global climate in the coming months, fueling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities.”

Probability of La Niña

Even as the Philippines and other countries are still dealing with the effects of El Niño, PAGASA explained that the issuance of La Niña Watch is already needed since there is now a 55% chance of La Niña developing in the next six months.

La Niña“is characterized by unusually cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.” It triggers above normal rainfall in the Philippines.

But Ana Liza Solis, officer-in-charge of PAGASA’s Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, noted that the raising of La Niña Watch is not an absolute guarantee that the phenomenon will indeed develop.

“It’s still uncertain. Once PAGASA raises La Niña Alert, that’s when confidence would be higher that La Niña will develop. The La Niña Watch [issued now] is asking you to be aware and be prepared,” Solis said in a mix of Filipino and English.

The last La Niña was a “triple-dip” event, according to the WMO, as it began in September 2020 and lasted until early 2023, or for three straight years.

Warm and dry season

Aside from the gradually weakening El Niño and the possibility of La Niña, the onset of the country’s warm and dry season is also expected to be announced soon.

PAGASA said in Thursday’s briefing that it expects to declare the start of the warm and dry season – which Filipinos often call “summer” – within two weeks.

So far, the northeast monsoon or amihan has yet to be terminated.

PAGASA reminded the public that soaring temperatures from March to May may pose health risks such as heat stroke and heat exhaustion.

The onset of the rainy season after the warm and dry season could also be slightly delayed, partly due to the ongoing El Niño. – Rappler.com

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Egay and Goring will be replaced by Emil and Gavino, respectively, starting 2027.

PAGASA has four sets of tropical cyclone names that are used alternately, which is why the names used in 2023 will be repeated in 2027, 2031, 2035, and so on – except for Egay and Goring.

The weather bureau decommissions or retires the name of a tropical cyclone when it has caused at least 300 deaths and/or P1 billion worth of damage to agriculture and infrastructure.

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Citing data from the Office of Civil Defense, PAGASA said Egay (Doksuri) and the enhanced southwest monsoon or habagat caused damage worth P15.318 billion in July 2023. A total of 30 people died.

A super typhoon at its peak, Egay battered Northern Luzon with intense rain and destructive winds. It made landfall as a typhoon in Fuga Island, Aparri, and in Dalupiri Island, Calayan – both in Cagayan province.

Meanwhile, damage from Goring (Saola) and the enhanced southwest monsoon reached P2.421 billion in August 2023. Two deaths were reported.

Goring was also a super typhoon. It did not make landfall in the Philippines, but triggered torrential rain and fierce winds in parts of Northern Luzon. – Rappler.com

The shear line refers to the point where cold air from the northeast monsoon or amihan converges with warm air from the Pacific Ocean.

In an advisory issued at 11 am on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the following areas are affected by heavy rain:

Thursday, January 25

• 50-100 millimeters (mm): Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar

Friday, January 26

• 50-100 mm: Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte

“Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible,” PAGASA warned.

The country has yet to have its first tropical cyclone of 2024.

A strong El Niño persists in the tropical Pacific, causing droughts and dry spells in parts of the Philippines. At least eight provinces are experiencing drought in January, all in Luzon: Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Kalinga, Bataan, Zambales, Cavite, and Palawan.

PAGASA earlier said El Niño is likely to persist until the March-April-May 2024 season. – Rappler.com

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has four sets of names that are used alternately.

For instance, the set for 2024 will also be used in 2028, 2032, 2036, and so on.

Each set contains 25 names that are arranged alphabetically.

Here are this year’s names:

PAGASA also prepared four auxiliary sets, in case there are more than 25 tropical cyclones in a particular year. Each auxiliary set has 10 names.

Below is the auxiliary set for 2024.

Meanwhile, international names for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea are assigned by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Center, operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The international names come from a list contributed to by several countries, including the Philippines.

Decommissioning names

When a tropical cyclone causes at least 300 deaths and/or P1 billion worth of damage to agriculture and infrastructure in the Philippines, its name gets decommissioned or removed.

The decommissioned name is replaced by another name starting with the same letter.

For the 2024 set, the new names are Aghon, Querubin, Romina, and Upang.

They replaced 2020’s Typhoon Ambo (Vongfong), Typhoon Quinta (Molave), Super Typhoon Rolly (Goni), and Typhoon Ulysses (Vamco), respectively. – Acor Arceo/Rappler.com

As of 4 pm on Monday, the LPA that used to be Kabayan was already in the vicinity of Impasug-ong, Bukidnon.

Kabayan earlier made landfall in Manay, Davao Oriental, at 9:30 am.

There are no more areas under tropical cyclone wind signals, but rain from the LPA will persist in the next 48 hours.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned the following areas to stay on alert for floods and landslides, given heavy rain:

Monday afternoon, December 18, to Tuesday afternoon, December 19

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental
• 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, southern parts of Samar and Eastern Samar, rest of Caraga

Tuesday afternoon, December 19, to Wednesday afternoon, December 20

• 50-100 mm: mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Kalayaan Islands

The shear line is also bringing rain to Camarines Norte, Quezon, Aurora, Cagayan, and Isabela on Monday. Floods and landslides remain possible in these provinces.

PAGASA expects the LPA to emerge over the Sulu Sea by Monday evening, where it could “reorganize and redevelop into a tropical depression.”

Then the weather system is projected to move across the Sulu Sea, south of Palawan’s Cagayancillo Islands, before crossing the central or southern part of Palawan by Tuesday morning or afternoon, December 19.

Afterwards, it may emerge over the West Philippine Sea, then pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, December 20.

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Meanwhile, the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will continue to bring gusty conditions to most of Luzon and the Visayas until Tuesday.

Also due to the surge of the northeast monsoon, a new gale warning was issued at 5 pm on Monday. Travel remains risky for small vessels in these seaboards:

• seaboard of Northern Luzon – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
• eastern and central seaboards of the Visayas – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

Moderate to rough seas will also persist in the western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboard of the Visayas. PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

Kabayan was the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com

By 10 am, Kabayan was located in the vicinity of Caraga, Davao Oriental, almost stationary or hardly moving in that area.

Its maximum sustained winds decreased from 65 kilometers per hour to 55 km/h, but its gustiness is now up to 90 km/h from the previous 80 km/h.

Although Kabayan has weakened, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned that floods and landslides are still likely in these areas seeing rain from the tropical depression:

Monday noon, December 18, to Tuesday noon, December 19

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental
• 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, southern parts of Samar and Eastern Samar, rest of Caraga

Tuesday noon, December 19, to Wednesday noon, December 20

• 50-100 mm: mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Kalayaan Islands

The shear line is also bringing rain to Camarines Norte, Quezon, Aurora, Cagayan, and Isabela on Monday. Floods and landslides remain possible in these provinces.

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Since Kabayan is back to tropical depression status, Signal No. 2 has been lifted as of 11 am on Monday. But the following areas are still under Signal No. 1, with strong winds expected:

• southern part of Palawan (Sofronio Española, Brooke’s Point, Bataraza, Balabac, Rizal, Quezon, Narra) including Cagayancillo Islands
• Southern Leyte
• Leyte
• southern part of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)
• southern part of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, Borongan City, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General MacArthur, Hernani, Mercedes)
• Cebu including Camotes and Bantayan Islands
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Negros Oriental
• Negros Occidental
• Guimaras
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin
• Bukidnon
• Davao de Oro
• northern part of Davao Oriental (Baganga, Manay, Caraga, Tarragona, Lupon, Banaybanay, Boston, Cateel)
• Misamis Occidental
• Lanao del Norte
• Lanao del Sur
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• northern part of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet, Libungan, Pigkawayan)
• northern part of Maguindanao (Buldon, Barira, Matanog, Parang, Sultan Kudarat, Sultan Mastura)
• western and central parts of Zamboanga del Norte (Siayan, Sindangan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, President Manuel A. Roxas, Sergio Osmeña Sr., Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Mutia, Piñan, Dapitan City, Sibutad, La Libertad, Rizal, Siocon, Baliguian, Gutalac, Labason, Kalawit, Tampilisan, Liloy, Salug, Godod, Bacungan)
• western and central parts of Zamboanga del Sur (Midsalip, Labangan, Tukuran, Aurora, Sominot, Ramon Magsaysay, Tambulig, Dumingag, Mahayag, Josefina, Molave, Vincenzo A. Sagun, Guipos, Dimataling, Dumalinao, Lakewood, Dinas, San Pablo, Tigbao, Tabina, Kumalarang, Lapuyan, Pitogo, Margosatubig, San Miguel, Bayog, Pagadian City)
• Zamboanga Sibugay
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Agusan del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Sur

The surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan is also causing gusty conditions in areas not under Signal No. 1, generally in most of Luzon and the Visayas, from Monday to Tuesday, December 19.

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For coastal waters, a gale warning remains in effect due to Kabayan and the surge of the northeast monsoon. Travel is risky for small vessels in these seaboards:

• seaboard of Northern Luzon – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
• eastern and central seaboards of the Visayas – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

Moderate to rough seas are also seen in the western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboard of the Visayas. PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

Following its landfall in Davao Oriental, Kabayan is projected to cross Mindanao’s “rugged terrain,” then emerge over the Sulu Sea between Monday afternoon and evening.

During that period, Kabayan might weaken further into a low pressure area. But it may still redevelop into a tropical cyclone over the Sulu Sea, according to PAGASA.

Kabayan will proceed to cross the Sulu Sea, south of Palawan’s Cagayancillo Islands, then possibly make another landfall in the central or southern part of Palawan – as a tropical depression – by Tuesday morning or afternoon.

Afterwards, it is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea, then pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, December 20.

“The current track and intensity forecast may still change given the nature and strength of this tropical
cyclone,” the weather bureau said.

Kabayan is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com

As of 4 am on Monday, Kabayan was already over the coastal waters of Caraga, Davao Oriental, moving west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 am on Monday that it observed a “southward shift” in the tropical storm’s track.

Kabayan is expected to make landfall in Davao Oriental or the southern part of Surigao del Sur on Monday morning.

The following areas affected by rain from the tropical storm should watch out for floods and landslides:

Monday, December 18

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Sur, and northern parts of Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental
• 50-100 mm: Central Visayas, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Davao City, Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, and rest of Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte

Tuesday, December 19

• 50-100 mm: mainland Palawan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Kalayaan Islands

Earlier, PAGASA warned that the shear line will also continue to bring rain to Bicol and Quezon on Monday. Floods and landslides are possible as well.

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Tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect for more areas as of 5 am on Monday. Below is the full list.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
• Surigao del Sur
• northern part of Agusan del Norte (Kitcharao, Jabonga, Santiago, Cabadbaran City, Remedios T. Romualdez, Tubay)
• eastern part of Agusan del Sur (Trento, Bunawan, San Francisco, Rosario, Prosperidad, Bayugan City, Sibagat)
• northern part of Davao Oriental (Boston, Cateel)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• southern part of mainland Palawan (Sofronio Española, Brooke’s Point, Bataraza, Balabac, Rizal, Quezon, Narra)
• Cagayancillo Islands
• Southern Leyte
• Leyte
• southern part of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)
• southern part of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, Borongan City, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General MacArthur, Hernani, Mercedes)
• Cebu including Camotes and Bantayan Islands
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Negros Oriental
• Negros Occidental
• Guimaras
• rest of Agusan del Norte
• rest of Agusan del Sur
• central part of Davao Oriental (Baganga, Manay, Caraga, Tarragona, Lupon, Banaybanay)
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Bukidnon
• Lanao del Norte
• Lanao del Sur
• northern part of Maguindanao del Norte (Buldon, Barira, Matanog, Parang, Sultan Kudarat, Sultan Mastura)
• northern part of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet, Libungan, Pigkawayan)
• northern and central parts of Zamboanga del Norte (Siayan, Sindangan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, President Manuel A. Roxas, Sergio Osmeña Sr., Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Mutia, Piñan, Dapitan City, Sibutad, La Libertad, Rizal, Siocon, Baliguian, Gutalac, Labason, Kalawit, Tampilisan, Liloy, Salug, Godod, Bacungan)
• Zamboanga del Sur
• Zamboanga Sibugay

PAGASA added that the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will cause gusty conditions in areas not under tropical cyclone wind signals, generally in most of Luzon and the Visayas, from Monday to Tuesday, December 19.

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The weather bureau also issued a new gale warning at 5 am on Monday due to Kabayan and the surge of the northeast monsoon. Travel is risky for small vessels in these seaboards:

• seaboard of Northern Luzon – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
• eastern and central seaboards of the Visayas – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high
• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Mindanao – rough to very rough seas, waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

Moderate to rough seas are also seen in the western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, western and northern seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboard of the Visayas. PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

After its expected landfall, Kabayan is seen to “cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao” then emerge over the Sulu Sea between Monday afternoon and evening.

During that period, Kabayan might weaken back into a tropical depression or even a low pressure area “due to frictional effects associated with landfall,” PAGASA explained.

“Although in such a case, redevelopment may still occur over the Sulu Sea,” added the weather bureau.

Kabayan could then move across the Sulu Sea, south of Palawan’s Cagayancillo Islands, followed by another landfall in the central or southern part of Palawan – as a tropical depression – by Tuesday morning or afternoon.

Afterwards, it is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea, then pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, December 20.

PAGASA reiterated that Kabayan’s projected track and intensity “may still change given its nature and strength.”

Kabayan is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com

Kabayan was also given the international name Jelawat, a name contributed by Malaysia which refers to a type of fish.

The maximum sustained winds of Kabayan increased from 55 kilometers per hour to 65 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin released past 11 pm on Sunday.

Its gustiness is now up to 80 km/h from 70 km/h.

As of 10 pm, the tropical storm was already 275 kilometers east of Davao City, moving west northwest at a slightly faster 15 km/h from 10 km/h earlier in the evening.

It is still expected to make landfall in Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental by Monday morning, December 18, at the latest.

Here are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Sunday:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
• Surigao del Sur
• northern part of Agusan del Norte (Kitcharao, Jabonga, Santiago, Cabadbaran City, Remedios T. Romualdez, Tubay)
• eastern part of Agusan del Sur (Trento, Bunawan, San Francisco, Rosario, Prosperidad, Bayugan City, Sibagat)
• northern part of Davao Oriental (Boston, Cateel)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Southern Leyte
• Leyte
• southern part of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)
• southern part of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, Borongan City, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General MacArthur, Hernani, Mercedes)
• Cebu including Camotes and Bantayan Islands
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Negros Oriental
• Negros Occidental
• rest of Agusan del Norte
• rest of Agusan del Sur
• central part of Davao Oriental (Baganga, Manay, Caraga)
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Lanao del Norte
• Lanao del Sur
• northern part of Maguindanao del Norte (Buldon, Barira, Matanog)
• northern part of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet)
• northern part of Zamboanga del Sur (Midsalip, Labangan, Tukuran, Aurora, Sominot, Ramon Magsaysay, Tambulig, Dumingag, Mahayag, Josefina, Molave)
• northeastern part of Zamboanga del Norte (Siayan, Sindangan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, President Manuel A. Roxas, Sergio Osmeña Sr., Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Mutia, Piñan, Dapitan City, Sibutad, La Libertad, Rizal)

PAGASA also said the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will cause gusty conditions until Monday in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol, Visayas, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern parts of Isabela and Nueva Ecija, and parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro.

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The weather bureau also updated its rainfall forecast for Kabayan, covering the next two days. Floods and landslides are likely in areas affected by the tropical storm.

Sunday night, December 17, to Monday night, December 18

• Above 200 millimeters (mm): northern part of Surigao del Sur
• 100-200 mm: rest of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Leyte; Biliran; Bohol; northern parts of Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and Davao Oriental; southern parts of Eastern Samar and Samar; rest of Caraga; rest of Northern Mindanao

Monday night, December 18, to Tuesday night, December 19

• 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, eastern part of Agusan del Sur, Dinagat Islands
• 50-100 mm: Visayas, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Meanwhile, the shear line will continue to bring rain to Bicol and Quezon on Monday, PAGASA said in a separate advisory on Sunday evening. The two areas should be on alert for possible floods and landslides, too.

For coastal waters, a gale warning remains in effect for the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao. Travel is risky for small vessels.

After its expected landfall, Kabayan is seen to “cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao” then emerge over the Bohol Sea or the Sulu Sea between Monday noon and evening.

During that period, Kabayan might weaken back into a tropical depression or even a low pressure area “due to frictional effects associated with landfall,” PAGASA explained.

“Although in such a case, redevelopment may still occur over the Sulu Sea,” added the weather bureau.

Kabayan could then move across the Sulu Sea, south of Palawan’s Cuyo Islands, followed by another landfall in the central or southern part of Palawan – as a tropical depression – by Tuesday morning or afternoon, December 19.

Afterwards, it is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea, then pass near or over Kalayaan Islands between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, December 20.

PAGASA reiterated that Kabayan’s projected track and intensity “may still change given its nature and strength.”

Kabayan is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com

Kabayan was last spotted 385 kilometers east of Davao City or 315 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 5 pm bulletin on Sunday.

The tropical depression is slowly heading west. At its current pace, it could make landfall in Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental on Sunday night or early Monday morning, December 18.

So far, Kabayan still has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

PAGASA said Kabayan is “likely to maintain its strength until its initial landfall over Mindanao,” but there is also a chance of it intensifying into a tropical storm before hitting land.

Floods and landslides are likely in the following areas seeing rain from Kabayan:

Sunday afternoon, December 17, to Monday afternoon, December 18

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Monday afternoon, December 18, to Tuesday afternoon, December 19

• 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Earlier on Sunday, the weather bureau also warned that the shear line may trigger heavy rain in Bicol on Sunday and Monday. Floods and landslides are possible in the region as well.

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Meanwhile, Signal No. 1 has been raised in more areas as of 5 pm on Sunday. Strong winds are expected due to Kabayan.

• Southern Leyte
• Leyte
• southern part of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)
• southern part of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, Borongan City, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General MacArthur, Hernani, Mercedes)
• Cebu including Camotes Islands
• Bantayan Islands
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• northern part of Davao Oriental (Cateel, Boston, Baganga, Manay, Caraga)
• Agusan del Norte
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin
• Bukidnon
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao de Oro
• Misamis Occidental
• Lanao del Norte
• Lanao del Sur
• northern and central parts of Davao del Norte (Santo Tomas, New Corella, Braulio E. Dujali, Panabo City, Asuncion, Tagum City, Talaingod, Carmen, Kapalong, San Isidro)
• Davao City
• northern part of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan, Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam, Antipas, Magpet)
• northern part of Maguindanao (Buldon, Barira, Matanog)

PAGASA also said the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will cause gusty conditions on Sunday and Monday in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol, Visayas, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern parts of Isabela and Nueva Ecija, and parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro.

Due to Kabayan and the surge of the northeast monsoon, another gale warning was issued at 5 pm on Sunday for coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao. Travel is risky for small vessels.

After its expected landfall, Kabayan is seen to “cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao” then emerge over the Bohol Sea or the Sulu Sea on Monday morning or afternoon.

“Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, Kabayan is forecast to weaken over land and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out – although in such a case, redevelopment may still occur over the Sulu Sea,” PAGASA said.

Kabayan could then move across the Sulu Sea, south of Cuyo Islands, until early Tuesday morning, December 19. Then it might make another landfall in the central or southern part of Palawan by Tuesday morning, before finally emerging over the Philippine Sea by noon or early afternoon that day.

“Afterwards, Kabayan may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea,” PAGASA added.

The weather bureau stressed that “the projected track and intensity of the tropical depression remain subject to change, given its nature and strength.”

Kabayan is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com

In a briefing past 11 am on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Kabayan was located 440 kilometers east of Davao City.

The tropical depression is slowly moving north northwest, from a previous speed of 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

PAGASA said Kabayan may head generally west or west northwest in the next two days, “and is likely to maintain its strength until its initial landfall over Mindanao.”

But the weather bureau is not ruling out the possibility of Kabayan intensifying into a tropical storm before its landfall.

PAGASA provided the following rainfall forecast for Kabayan as of 11 am on Sunday:

Sunday noon, December 17, to Monday noon, December 18

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Monday noon, December 18, to Tuesday noon, December 19

• 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte
• 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, rest of Caraga

Floods and landslides are likely.

In a separate advisory issued at 11 am on Sunday, the weather bureau also warned Bicol to brace for heavy rain from the shear line on Sunday and on Monday, December 18. Floods and landslides are possible in the region, too.

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Meanwhile, the areas in the Visayas and Mindanao listed below remain under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am on Sunday. Strong winds are expected due to Kabayan.

• southern part of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao)
• southern part of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, Borongan City, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General MacArthur, Hernani, Mercedes)
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Bohol
• Camotes Islands
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• northern part of Davao Oriental (Cateel, Boston, Baganga)
• northern part of Davao de Oro (Monkayo, Laak)
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin
• northern part of Bukidnon (Impasug-ong, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Sumilao, Libona, Baungon, Cabanglasan, Malaybalay City)

PAGASA also said the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan will cause gusty conditions on Sunday and Monday in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol, Visayas, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern parts of Isabela and Nueva Ecija, and parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro.

Due to Kabayan and the surge of the northeast monsoon, a gale warning is still in effect for coastal waters along the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao. The weather bureau warned that travel is risky for small vessels.

PAGASA sees Kabayan making landfall in Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental on Sunday night or early Monday morning. Then it could “cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over [the] Bohol Sea or Sulu Sea” Monday noon or afternoon.

“Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, Kabayan is forecast to weaken over land and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out – although in such a case, redevelopment may still occur over the Sulu Sea,” the weather bureau said.

Kabayan could then move across the Sulu Sea, south of Cuyo Islands, until early Tuesday morning, December 19. Then it might make another landfall in the central or southern part of Palawan by Tuesday morning, before finally emerging over the Philippine Sea by noon or early afternoon that day.

“Afterwards, Kabayan may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea,” PAGASA added.

The weather bureau stressed that “the projected track and intensity of the tropical depression remain subject to change, given its nature and strength.”

Kabayan is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for December.

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in December. – Rappler.com